Interest rate cycles and the myth of entry timing

The received wisdom is that you buy property when interest rates are low and sell when they are high. In South Africa, over the last twenty-five years, this has been almost exactly wrong.

The best entry vintages — 2003, 2009, 2020 — were all at points where the repo rate had recently been cut sharply in response to economic stress, not at points of durable low rates. By the time the cutting cycle was 'confirmed' by the market consensus, prices had already moved.

The mechanism is straightforward. Distressed sellers are created by rate hikes, not rate cuts. The forced-sale inventory that produces genuinely below-market opportunities peaks 12 to 18 months after the top of a hiking cycle — which is usually 6 to 12 months before the first cut. Waiting for the cut means arriving after the discounts have been absorbed.

This is not a market call. It is an argument for staying visible in the market at all times, keeping your criteria narrow, and being ready to move when a specific deal fits — rather than trying to time the aggregate cycle.